DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021
论文题名: Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere-ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada
作者: Haegeli P. ; Shandro B. ; Mair P.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2021
卷: 15, 期: 3 起始页码: 1567
结束页码: 1586
语种: 英语
英文关键词: air-sea interaction
; Arctic Oscillation
; avalanche
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; regression analysis
; road
; safety
; teleconnection
; winter
; Canada
; Rocky Mountains
英文摘要: Numerous large-scale atmosphere-ocean oscillations including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are known to substantially affect winter weather patterns in western Canada. Several studies have examined the effect of these oscillations on avalanche hazard using long-term avalanche activity records from highway avalanche safety programmes. We present a new approach for gaining additional insight into these relationships that uses avalanche problem information published in public avalanche bulletins during the winters of 2010 to 2019. For each avalanche problem type, we calculate seasonal prevalence values for each forecast area, elevation band, and season, which are then included in a series of beta mixed-effects regression models to explore both the overall and regional effects of the Pacific-centered oscillations (POs; including ENSO, PDO, and PNA) and AO on the nature of avalanche hazard in the study area. We find significant negative effects of PO on the prevalence of storm slab avalanche problems, wind slab avalanche problems, and dry loose avalanche problems, which agree reasonably well with the known impacts of PO on winter weather in western Canada. The analysis also reveals a positive relationship between AO and the prevalence of deep persistent slab avalanche problems, particularly in the Rocky Mountains. In addition, we find several smaller-scale patterns that highlight that the avalanche hazard response to these oscillations varies regionally. Even though our study period is short, our study shows that the forecaster judgement included in avalanche problem assessments can add considerable value for these types of analyses. Since the predictability of the most important atmosphere-ocean oscillations is continuously improving, a better understanding of their effect on avalanche hazard can contribute to the development of informative seasonal avalanche forecasts in a relatively simple way.. © 2021 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164700
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School for Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, V5T 2P9, Canada; Point Engineering and Avalanche Consulting, Nelson, V1L 4H5, Canada; Dept. Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States
Recommended Citation:
Haegeli P.,Shandro B.,Mair P.. Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere-ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada[J]. Cryosphere,2021-01-01,15(3)