DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-1645-2021
论文题名: Understanding drivers of glacier-length variability over the last millennium
作者: Huston A. ; Siler N. ; Roe G.H. ; Pettit E. ; Steiger N.J.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2021
卷: 15, 期: 3 起始页码: 1645
结束页码: 1662
语种: 英语
英文关键词: aerosol
; ensemble forecasting
; glacier
; global climate
; moraine
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; simulation
; time series
英文摘要: Changes in glacier length reflect the integrated response to local fluctuations in temperature and precipitation resulting from both external forcing (e.g., volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic CO2) and internal climate variability. In order to interpret the climate history reflected in the glacier moraine record, the influence of both sources of climate variability must therefore be considered. Here we study the last millennium of glacier-length variability across the globe using a simple dynamic glacier model, which we force with temperature and precipitation time series from a 13-member ensemble of simulations from a global climate model. The ensemble allows us to quantify the contributions to glacier-length variability from external forcing (given by the ensemble mean) and internal variability (given by the ensemble spread). Within this framework, we find that internal variability is the predominant source of length fluctuations for glaciers with a shorter response time (less than a few decades). However, for glaciers with longer response timescales (more than a few decades) external forcing has a greater influence than internal variability. We further find that external forcing also dominates when the response of glaciers from widely separated regions is averaged. Singleforcing simulations indicate that, for this climate model, most of the forced response over the last millennium, preanthropogenic warming, has been driven by global-scale temperature change associated with volcanic aerosols. © 2019 EDP Sciences. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164713
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States; Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Huston A.,Siler N.,Roe G.H.,et al. Understanding drivers of glacier-length variability over the last millennium[J]. Cryosphere,2021-01-01,15(3)