DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-633-2021
论文题名: ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model
作者: Lipscomb W.H. ; Leguy G.R. ; Jourdain N.C. ; Asay-Davis X. ; Seroussi H. ; Nowicki S.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2021
卷: 15, 期: 2 起始页码: 633
结束页码: 661
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ice core
; ice cover
; ice sheet
; ice-ocean interaction
; model
; Antarctic Ice Sheet
; Antarctica
英文摘要: The future retreat rate for marine-based regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in sea-level projections. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) aims to improve projections and quantify uncertainties by running an ensemble of ice sheet models with atmosphere and ocean forcing derived from global climate models. Here, the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is used to run ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Using multiple combinations of sub-ice-shelf melt parameterizations and calibrations, CISM is spun up to steady state over many millennia. During the spin-up, basal friction parameters and basin-scale thermal forcing corrections are adjusted to optimize agreement with the observed ice thickness. The model is then run forward for 550 years, from 1950-2500, applying ocean thermal forcing anomalies from six climate models. In all simulations, the ocean forcing triggers long-term retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially in the Filchner-Ronne and Ross sectors. Mass loss accelerates late in the 21st century and then rises steadily for several centuries without leveling off. The resulting ocean-forced sea-level rise at year 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm, depending on the melt scheme and ocean forcing. Further experiments show relatively high sensitivity to the basal friction law, moderate sensitivity to grid resolution and the prescribed collapse of small ice shelves, and low sensitivity to the stress-balance approximation. The Amundsen sector exhibits threshold behavior, with modest retreat under many parameter settings but complete collapse under some combinations of low basal friction and high thermal forcing anomalies. Large uncertainties remain, as a result of parameterized sub-shelf melt rates, simplified treatments of calving and basal friction, and the lack of ice-ocean coupling. © 2021 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164744
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, France; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lipscomb W.H.,Leguy G.R.,Jourdain N.C.,et al. ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model[J]. Cryosphere,2021-01-01,15(2)