DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-459-2021
论文题名: Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c
作者: Mas E Braga M. ; Bernales J. ; Prange M. ; P. Stroeven A. ; Rogozhina I.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2021
卷: 15, 期: 1 起始页码: 459
结束页码: 478
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate conditions
; climate modeling
; climate signal
; climate variation
; collapse
; interglacial
; marine isotope stage
; sea level change
; Antarctic Ice Sheet
; Antarctica
; East Antarctic Ice Sheet
; East Antarctica
; West Antarctic Ice Sheet
; West Antarctica
英文摘要: Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0-8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7-8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennial-scale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years. © 2021 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164754
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Geomorphology and Glaciology, Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Marum - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany; Department of Geography, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Mas E Braga M.,Bernales J.,Prange M.,et al. Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c[J]. Cryosphere,2021-01-01,15(1)