DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021
论文题名: The grisli-lsce contribution to the ice sheet model intercomparison project for phase 6 of the coupled model intercomparison project (ismip6)-part 2: Projections of the antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century
作者: Quiquet A. ; Dumas C.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2021
卷: 15, 期: 2 起始页码: 1031
结束页码: 1052
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP
; ice sheet
; numerical model
; twenty first century
; Antarctic Ice Sheet
; Antarctica
英文摘要: The Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea level rise over the 21st century is of primary societal importance and remains largely uncertain as of yet. In particular, in the recent literature, the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet by 2100 can be negative (sea level fall) by a few centimetres or positive (sea level rise), with some estimates above 1 m. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-phase 6 (ISMIP6) aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the fate of the ice sheets in the future by gathering various ice sheet models in a common framework. Here, we present the GRISLI-LSCE (Grenoble Ice Sheet and Land Ice model of the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica. We show that our model is strongly sensitive to the climate forcing used, with a contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level rise by 2100 that ranges from-50 to +150 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). Future oceanic warming leads to a decrease in thickness of the ice shelves, resulting in grounding-line retreat, while increased surface mass balance partially mitigates or even overcompensates the dynamic ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise. Most of the ice sheet changes over the next century are dampened under low-greenhousegas-emission scenarios. Uncertainties related to sub-ice-shelf melt rates induce large differences in simulated groundingline retreat, confirming the importance of this process and its representation in ice sheet models for projections of the Antarctic ice sheets evolution. © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164786
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, France
Recommended Citation:
Quiquet A.,Dumas C.. The grisli-lsce contribution to the ice sheet model intercomparison project for phase 6 of the coupled model intercomparison project (ismip6)-part 2: Projections of the antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century[J]. Cryosphere,2021-01-01,15(2)