| DOI: | 10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021
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| 论文题名: | Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F |
| 作者: | Williams T.; Korosov A.; Rampal P.; Ólason E.
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| 刊名: | Cryosphere
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| ISSN: | 19940416
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| 出版年: | 2021
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| 卷: | 15, 期:7 | | 起始页码: | 3207
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| 结束页码: | 3227
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | forecasting method
; sea ice
; Arctic Ocean
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| 英文摘要: | The neXtSIM-F (neXtSIM forecast) forecasting system consists of a stand-alone sea ice model, neXtSIM (neXt-generation Sea Ice Model), forced by the TOPAZ ocean forecast and the ECMWF atmospheric forecast, combined with daily data assimilation of sea ice concentration. It uses the novel brittle Bingham-Maxwell (BBM) sea ice rheology, making it the first forecast based on a continuum model not to use the viscous-plastic (VP) rheology. It was tested in the Arctic for the time period November 2018-June 2020 and was found to perform well, although there are some shortcomings. Despite drift not being assimilated in our system, the sea ice drift is good throughout the year, being relatively unbiased, even for longer lead times like 5ĝ€¯d. The RMSE in speed and the total RMSE are also good for the first 3 or so days, although they both increase steadily with lead time. The thickness distribution is relatively good, although there are some regions that experience excessive thickening with negative implications for the summertime sea ice extent, particularly in the Greenland Sea. The neXtSIM-F forecasting system assimilates OSI SAF sea ice concentration products (both SSMIS and AMSR2) by modifying the initial conditions daily and adding a compensating heat flux to prevent removed ice growing back too quickly. The assimilation greatly improves the sea ice extent for the forecast duration. © Copyright: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164830
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Jahnebakken 3, Bergen, 5007, Norway; CNRS, Institut Géophysique de l'Environnement, Grenoble, France
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Williams T.,Korosov A.,Rampal P.,et al. Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F[J]. Cryosphere,2021-01-01,15(7)
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