globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2019.115883
论文题名:
Rapid Pleistocene desiccation and the future of Africa's Lake Victoria
作者: Beverly E.J.; White J.D.; Peppe D.J.; Faith J.T.; Blegen N.; Tryon C.A.
刊名: Earth and Planetary Science Letters
ISSN: 0012821X
出版年: 2020
卷: 530
语种: 英语
中文关键词: climate change ; East Africa ; human evolution ; paleosol ; tropical paleoclimate ; water budget
英文关键词: Budget control ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Driers (materials) ; Population statistics ; Tropics ; East Africa ; Human evolution ; paleosol ; Tropical paleoclimate ; Water budget ; Lakes ; climate variation ; desiccation ; human evolution ; paleoclimate ; paleosol ; Pleistocene ; tropical environment ; water budget ; East African Lakes ; Lake Victoria
英文摘要: The effects of precipitation changes on tropical East African ecosystems and human populations is poorly understood due to the complex interplay between global and regional processes and missing data from key regions and time periods. We generate a water-budget model for Lake Victoria, the largest tropical lake in the world, the source of the White Nile, and a region that supports some of the densest human populations in Africa, that assesses the impact of changing climate on lake levels and the rate of lake level change. Model results demonstrate that significant changes in the size and volume of Lake Victoria are possible in response to changes in temperature, precipitation, and orbital forcing. This modeling indicates that Lake Victoria can transition back and forth between modern lake levels and complete desiccation in centuries to a few millennia, which is rapid enough to allow for two previously observed desiccation events between 14-18 ka, during which time the lake drained and refilled twice. Combined observations from modeling and estimates of paleoprecipitation indicate that Lake Victoria was likely desiccated between 94-36 ka. This dry interval partially overlaps the megadrought (140-70 ka) identified in Lakes Malawi and Tanganyika further south, and the cooler, drier conditions identified in the Gulf of Aden between 75-50 ka. This prolonged desiccation was probably driven by eccentricity-enhanced precession and high-latitude forcing that affected the Congo Air Boundary convergence. Using future climate projections, our model also predicts that at current rates of temperature change and previous rates of lake level fall, Lake Victoria could have no outlet to the White Nile within 10 years, and Kenya could lose access to the lake in <400 years, which would significantly affect the economic resources supplied by Lake Victoria to the East African Community. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164864
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Houston, Science and Research Building 1, 3507 Cullen Blvd, Room 214, Houston, TX 77204-5008, United States; Terrestrial Paleoclimatology Research Group, Department of Geosciences, Baylor University, One Bear Place #97354, Waco, TX 76798-7354, United States; Department of Biology, Baylor University, One Bear Place #97388, Waco, TX 76798-7388, United States; Natural History Museum of Utah, University of Utah, 301 Wakara Way, Salt Lake City, UT 84108, United States; Department of Anthropology, University of Utah, 260 S. Central Campus Drive, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, United States; Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Anthropology, University of Connecticut, 354 Mansfield Road, Storrs, CT 06269, United States

Recommended Citation:
Beverly E.J.,White J.D.,Peppe D.J.,et al. Rapid Pleistocene desiccation and the future of Africa's Lake Victoria[J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2020-01-01,530
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Beverly E.J.]'s Articles
[White J.D.]'s Articles
[Peppe D.J.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Beverly E.J.]'s Articles
[White J.D.]'s Articles
[Peppe D.J.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Beverly E.J.]‘s Articles
[White J.D.]‘s Articles
[Peppe D.J.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.