globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2019.115911
论文题名:
Using Late Pleistocene sea surface temperature reconstructions to constrain future greenhouse warming
作者: Friedrich T.; Timmermann A.
刊名: Earth and Planetary Science Letters
ISSN: 0012821X
出版年: 2020
卷: 530
语种: 英语
中文关键词: climate sensitivity ; glacial cycles ; global warming ; paleo modeling
英文关键词: Atmospheric radiation ; Atmospheric temperature ; Glacial geology ; Global warming ; Greenhouse gases ; Greenhouses ; Oceanography ; Repair ; Submarine geophysics ; Surface properties ; Surface waters ; Uncertainty analysis ; Climate sensitivity ; Coupled climate model ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ; Glacial cycles ; Global mean surface temperature ; Pre-industrial levels ; Robust reconstruction ; Sea surface temperature (SST) ; Climate models ; climate change ; future prospect ; glacial environment ; global warming ; greenhouse gas ; paleoenvironment ; Pleistocene ; reconstruction ; sea surface temperature ; sensitivity analysis
英文摘要: Future greenhouse warming projections conducted with coupled climate models still exhibit a substantial spread in response to a given anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration scenario. In order to constrain this spread and to provide robust warming projections, our understanding of Earth's global-mean surface temperature response to radiative forcing (referred to as climate sensitivity) needs to be further refined. Here we estimate an averaged glacial/interglacial climate sensitivity using 25 transient Earth system model simulations of the Last Glacial Cycle and a global-mean sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction derived from 64 globally-distributed paleo-proxies of SST. Our results document that Earth's averaged Late Pleistocene equilibrium climate sensitivity is in the order of ∼4.2 K per CO2 doubling. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, this value translates into a global-mean surface warming of ∼5.0 K by the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels. This estimate is in excellent agreement with the ensemble-mean projection of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our uncertainty analysis reveals further that the lack of robust reconstructions of glacial aerosol forcing is a key contributor to the overall uncertainty of paleo-based estimates of climate sensitivity. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164964
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作者单位: Department of Oceanography, School of Ocean and Earth Sciences and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manōa, 1000 Pope Road, Marine Science Building (MSB) 205, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States; Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Busan, South Korea; Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea

Recommended Citation:
Friedrich T.,Timmermann A.. Using Late Pleistocene sea surface temperature reconstructions to constrain future greenhouse warming[J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2020-01-01,530
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