| DOI: | 10.1111/ele.13751
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| 论文题名: | Time lags and the invasion debt in plant naturalisations |
| 作者: | Duncan R.P.
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| 刊名: | Ecology Letters
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| ISSN: | 1461023X
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| 出版年: | 2021
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| 卷: | 24, 期:7 | | 起始页码: | 1363
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| 结束页码: | 1374
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 中文关键词: | alien
; biological invasion
; hazard function
; horticulture
; invasive species
; lag phases
; ornamental plants
; plant introduction
; propagule pressure
; time lag
; trade
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| 英文关键词: | biological invasion
; horticulture
; introduced species
; naturalization
; survival
; United Kingdom
; introduced species
; plant
; Introduced Species
; Plants
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| 英文摘要: | Ecological processes often exhibit time lags. For plant invasions, lags of decades to centuries between species’ introduction and establishment in the wild (naturalisation) are common, leading to the idea of an invasion debt: accelerating rates of introduction result in an expanding pool of introduced species that will naturalise in the future. Here, I show how a concept from survival analysis, the hazard function, provides an intuitive way to understand and forecast time lags. For plant naturalisation, theoretical arguments predict that lags between introduction and naturalisation will have a unimodal distribution, and that increasing horticultural activity will cause the mean and variance of lag times to decline over time. These predictions were supported by data on introduction and naturalisation dates for plant species introduced to Britain. While increasing trade and horticultural activity can generate an invasion debt by accelerating introductions, the same processes could lower that debt by reducing lag times. © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/166822
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Centre for Conservation Ecology and Genomics, Institute for Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, Bruce, ACT, Australia
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Duncan R.P.. Time lags and the invasion debt in plant naturalisations[J]. Ecology Letters,2021-01-01,24(7)
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