globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111795
论文题名:
Resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks: A system dynamics simulation analysis
作者: Chen S.; Zhang M.; Ding Y.; Nie R.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 146
语种: 英语
中文关键词: External shocks ; Oil import system ; Resilience ; System dynamics (SD)
英文关键词: Coal industry ; Crude oil ; Proven reserves ; Public risks ; System theory ; Conversion coefficients ; Crude oil reserves ; Normal operations ; Parameter groups ; Public participation ; Simulation model ; System dynamics simulation ; System resiliences ; Petroleum industry ; computer simulation ; crude oil ; economic instability ; financial crisis ; import ; local participation ; oil production ; China
英文摘要: Oil is an important energy resource that guarantees the operation of a country's production and life. To reduce the losses caused by the interruption of oil imports, it is urgent to build a system with resilience. By referring to the idea of resilience evolution curve and analyzing the feedback relationship among the four sub-modules of China's oil import system, this paper established a system dynamics (SD) simulation model to study resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks. Then, according to the different parameter groups, we simulated the performance changes of the oil import system in different scenarios, calculated the values of system resilience in different situations, and analyzed the possible critical points that system can still maintain normal operation. i) Diversified measures can enhance system resilience and reduce losses. ii) When the external shocks are strong, the extraordinary production of coal-to-oil and public participation also play an important role in mitigating risks. iii) The increase of strategic crude oil reserves, conversion coefficient of crude oil, the company's ability to guarantee oil security and the ratio of energy substitution enhance system resilience effectively. iv) The threshold for the system to maintain stability is found under a certain scenario. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167073
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China; Center for Environmental Management and Economics Policy Research, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China

Recommended Citation:
Chen S.,Zhang M.,Ding Y.,et al. Resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks: A system dynamics simulation analysis[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,146
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Chen S.]'s Articles
[Zhang M.]'s Articles
[Ding Y.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Chen S.]'s Articles
[Zhang M.]'s Articles
[Ding Y.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Chen S.]‘s Articles
[Zhang M.]‘s Articles
[Ding Y.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.