DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111100
论文题名: Asymmetric oil prices and trade imbalances: Does the source of the oil shock matter?
作者: Jibril H. ; Chaudhuri K. ; Mohaddes K.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 137 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Asymmetry
; Oil prices
; Oil-demand shocks
; Oil-supply shocks
; Trade balance
英文关键词: Commerce
; Energy resources
; Asymmetry
; Oil demand shocks
; Oil Prices
; Oil supply shocks
; Trade balance
; Costs
; demand analysis
; energy market
; energy policy
; error analysis
; oil production
; oil supply
; parameter estimation
; trade flow
; Saudi Arabia
英文摘要: We examine the asymmetric effects of oil supply shocks, shocks to global real economic activity, and oil-specific demand shocks on the oil, non-oil and overall trade balances of a large sample of oil exporters and oil importers. Our empirical strategy accounts for endogenous oil prices, heterogeneous parameters, and error cross section dependence within a panel framework. We find that the pattern of asymmetries in the oil price-trade balance relationship depends on the source of the shock. For both oil exporters and oil importers, oil supply expansions are more important than oil supply disruptions; we discuss the role that Saudi Arabia plays in limiting the global effects of oil supply disruptions. Although increases in global demand deteriorate trade balances for oil importers and improve them for oil exporters, decreases in global demand have a similar, rather than an opposite effect. Our results corroborate the existing evidence that oil price increases only generate large global imbalances if they result from demand-side shocks; and we present new evidence that oil price decreases only benefit oil importers if they result from supply-side shocks. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167256
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, United Kingdom; Leeds University Business School, University of Leeds, United Kingdom; Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Jibril H.,Chaudhuri K.,Mohaddes K.. Asymmetric oil prices and trade imbalances: Does the source of the oil shock matter?[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,137