DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111726
论文题名: An ecological macroeconomics model: The energy transition in the EU
作者: Nieto J. ; Carpintero Ó. ; Lobejón L.F. ; Miguel L.J.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 145 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Ecological macroeconomics
; Energy roadmap 2050
; Energy transitions
; Input-output analysis
; Integrated assessment model
英文关键词: Ecology
; Energy efficiency
; Energy utilization
; International trade
; Metal drawing
; Productivity
; Ecological economics
; Emissions mitigation
; Industrial policies
; Input output analysis
; Integrated assessment models
; Labour productivities
; Macroeconomic impact
; Modelling methodology
; Economic analysis
; alternative energy
; energy market
; energy planning
; energy policy
; energy resource
; energy use
; European Union
; input-output analysis
; macroeconomics
; transitional economy
; Europe
英文摘要: The Energy Roadmap 2050 (ER2050) is committed to achieve the European Union's emissions mitigation goals by reducing energy use and a transition to renewables. The macroeconomic impacts of the Ref16 and ‘EUCO’ scenarios of this strategy have been reported to entail an absolute decoupling between GDP growth and energy use. The aim of this paper is assessing the ER2050 targets with a novel modelling methodology based on Post-Keynesian Economics, i.e. demand-led economic growth and Ecological Economics, i.e. taking into account absolute biophysical (energy availability) constrains to economic growth. Thus, this article presents the Economy module of the Integrated Assessment Model MEDEAS-Europe, combining System Dynamics and Input-Output analysis, and evaluates the ER2050 targets under different scenarios regarding primary income distribution, foreign trade, labour productivity, industrial policy and working time reduction. Our results show that GDP growth and employment creation may be halted due to energy scarcity if the ER2050 targets are met even considering great energy efficiency gains. In addition, the renewables share would increase enough to reduce the energy imports dependency, but not sufficiently to meet the emissions targets. Only a Post-Growth scenario would be able to meet the climate goals and maintain the level of employment. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167385
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Applied Economics, University of Valladolid, Av. Valle Esgueva 6, Spain; Research Group on Energy, Economy and System Dynamics, University of Valladolid, Paseo del Cauce, s/n, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Nieto J.,Carpintero Ó.,Lobejón L.F.,et al. An ecological macroeconomics model: The energy transition in the EU[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,145