DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111152
论文题名: Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty
作者: Sendstad L.H. ; Chronopoulos M.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 137 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Investment analysis
; Policy uncertainty
; Real options
; Renewable energy
英文关键词: Renewable energy resources
; Risk assessment
; Uncertainty analysis
; Investment analysis
; Real Options
; Real options frameworks
; Renewable energies
; Renewable energy technologies
; Sequential investments
; Technological uncertainty
; Technology adoption
; Investments
; alternative energy
; electricity supply
; energy policy
; incentive
; innovation
; investment
; policy analysis
; subsidy system
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Although innovation and support schemes are among the main forces that drive investment in renewable energy (RE) technologies, both involve considerable uncertainty. We develop a real options framework to analyse the impact of technological, policy and electricity price uncertainty on the decision to invest sequentially in successively improved versions of a RE technology. Technological uncertainty is reflected in the random arrival of innovations, and policy uncertainty in the likely provision or retraction of a subsidy that takes the form of a fixed premium on top of the electricity price. We show that greater likelihood of subsidy retraction (provision) lowers (raises) the incentive to invest, and, by comparing a stepwise to a lumpy investment strategy, we show how an embedded option to adopt an improved technology version mitigates the impact of subsidy retraction on investment timing. Specifically, we show how stepwise investment facilitates earlier technology adoption compared to lumpy investment, and that, under stepwise investment, technological uncertainty accelerates technology adoption, thus further offsetting the incentive to delay investment in the light of subsidy retraction. © 2019 Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167471
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Industrial Economics & Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science & Technology, Trondheim, 7491, Norway; City, University of London, Cass Business School, London, EC1Y 8TZ, United Kingdom; Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business & Management Science, Bergen, 5045, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Sendstad L.H.,Chronopoulos M.. Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,137