DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111686
论文题名: Study on the forecast model of electricity substitution potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region considering the impact of electricity substitution policies
作者: Wang Y. ; Wang S. ; Song F. ; Yang J. ; Zhu J. ; Zhang F.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 144 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Beijing-tianjin-hebei
; Electrical energy substitution
; SSA-LSSVM method
; System dynamics
英文关键词: Environmental technology
; Support vector machines
; Beijing-tianjin-hebei regions
; Causal relationships
; Environmental factors
; Hybrid prediction models
; Industrial production
; Least squares support vector machines
; Operation optimization
; Transportation sector
; Predictive analytics
; algorithm
; electricity supply
; energy policy
; forecasting method
; model
; resource development
; substitution
; support vector machine
; Beijing [China]
; China
; Hebei
; Tianjin
英文摘要: In recent years, China has introduced a series of energy substitution policies, aiming to achieve a fundamental change in the way of energy development. Firstly, based on the world energy model constructed by IEA, this paper determines the main driving factors in the field of power substitution, including economy, technology, policy, energy price and environmental factors. Secondly, based on the principle of system dynamics, a causal relationship diagram of five driving factors is constructed to clarify the feedback and linkage relationship between the factors. Finally, this paper proposes a hybrid prediction model combining Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA) and Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LSSVM), namely SSA-LSSVM, which fully considers the influence of relevant factors of electric energy substitution, while avoiding the subjectivity of model parameter setting. The results show that the future development of electric energy substitution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has maintained a rapid pace. The potential for electric energy substitution in the industrial production sector is large, and there is a large space for mining and operation optimization in the residential heating and transportation sectors. This paper provides a basis for the future development and improvement of the strategic plan of electric energy substitution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167572
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, China
Recommended Citation:
Wang Y.,Wang S.,Song F.,et al. Study on the forecast model of electricity substitution potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region considering the impact of electricity substitution policies[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,144