DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111225
论文题名: Policy analysis for grid parity of wind power generation in China
作者: Xu X. ; Niu D. ; Xiao B. ; Guo X. ; Zhang L. ; Wang K.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 138 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Grid parity
; Subsidy policy
; System dynamics
; Wind power
; Wind power curtailment forecasting
英文关键词: Electric power generation
; Public policy
; System theory
; Wind power
; Grid parities
; Installed capacity
; Policy implications
; System Dynamics
; System dynamics model
; Wind power curtailments
; Wind power in chinas
; Wind power production
; Electric power transmission networks
; cost analysis
; empirical analysis
; energy policy
; forecasting method
; policy analysis
; policy approach
; power generation
; subsidy system
; wind power
; China
英文摘要: The “13th Five-Year Plan” for wind power has proposed that it will reach grid parity and compete with power and hydropower. Accordingly, many doubts have been raised. Is the wind power in China already equipped with conditions for grid parity? What is the impact on the development of wind power? To solve these doubts, this study employs a system dynamics model to judge whether China can achieve grid parity for wind power. First, the factor indicator system is constructed from the aspects of wind power production, consumption, and curtailment. Second, the trend of wind power curtailment, cost, revenue, and installed capacity are predicted from 2005 to 2030. Third, three scenarios are set to simulate the impact of grid parity on wind power. Empirical results show that: (1) Net revenue and installed capacity will continue to increase, while the wind power curtailment will gradually reduce. (2) When the subsidy is decreased to 0, revenue will significantly reduce, and the installed capacity will reduce by nearly 1/4. (3) The Chinese government should not abolish all subsidies for wind power to achieve grid parity in 2020. To prompt the process for the grid parity of wind power, some policy implications are proposed. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167592
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development (North China Electric Power University), Beijing, 102206, China; School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China; School of Environment & Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China
Recommended Citation:
Xu X.,Niu D.,Xiao B.,et al. Policy analysis for grid parity of wind power generation in China[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,138