DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111215
论文题名: China's aircraft-related CO2 emissions: Decomposition analysis, decoupling status, and future trends
作者: Yu J. ; Shao C. ; Xue C. ; Hu H.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 138 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Civil aviation
; CO2 emissions
; Decoupling analysis
; Future trend
; LMDI
英文关键词: Aircraft
; Carbon
; Civil aviation
; Energy utilization
; Oil well logging
; CO2 emissions
; Decomposition analysis
; Decoupling analysis
; Energy consumption intensity
; Future trends
; LMDI
; Log mean divisia indices
; Transport structure
; Carbon dioxide
; aircraft emission
; alternative fuel
; carbon emission
; decomposition analysis
; fuel consumption
; prediction
; trend analysis
; China
英文摘要: In order to explore the decoupling relationship and its influence factors between the growth of China's civil aviation sector and carbon emissions, as well as to forecast future CO2 emissions, the extended log-mean Divisia index model (LMDI), Tapio decoupling model and an emission prediction model were applied in this study. The results show the following. (1) Total carbon emissions fluctuate on an overall upward trend, but the level of oil consumption per revenue tonne-kilometers (RTK) shows a steady downward trend. (2) Among the four main factors, the “transportation amount growth” factor contributed most to CO2 emissions increases; followed by transport structure adjustment effects and alternative fuel effects. The “energy consumption intensity” factor plays a major role in inhibiting CO2 emissions. (3) The decoupling state of civil aviation predominantly stayed in a weak decoupling prior to 1988, expansive coupling and expansive negative decoupling during 1988–2000, and expansive coupling post-2000, which implies that the government should take comprehensive measures to reduce CO2 emissions. (4) Based on eight scenarios, China's civil aviation sector is predicted to be responsible for 0.13 Gt of CO2 emissions by 2020. Between 2020 and 2050, CO2 emissions may increase by a factor 1.6 to 3.9. © 2019 Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167612
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology, Beijing, 10028, China; College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China
Recommended Citation:
Yu J.,Shao C.,Xue C.,et al. China's aircraft-related CO2 emissions: Decomposition analysis, decoupling status, and future trends[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,138