DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112216
论文题名: Energy Efficiency Vision 2050: How will new societal trends influence future energy demand in the European countries?
作者: Brugger H. ; Eichhammer W. ; Mikova N. ; Dönitz E.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2021
卷: 152 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Energy demand
; Energy efficiency
; Energy policy
; Energy scenarios
; European targets 2050
; New societal trends
英文关键词: Energy management
; Consumer awareness
; Energy demands
; European Countries
; Expert consultation
; Future energies
; Literature reviews
; Policy making
; Techno-economics
; Energy efficiency
; demand-side management
; energy efficiency
; energy policy
; literature review
; policy making
; trend analysis
; Europe
英文摘要: New societal trends are unfolding, such as digitalization, sharing economy and consumer awareness. They will highly influence future energy demand and, depending on their realization, enhance or counteract projected energy efficiency gains. Therefore, these trends have to be accompanied by policies with a strong focus on reducing energy demand (including Energy Efficiency First). This work analyzes quantitatively for all sectors how New Societal Trends interact with energy efficiency (policies). An extensive consultation with European experts identified 12 new societal trends that are likely to shape future energy demand. Based on these, four energy demand scenarios were developed for 2050. Using literature review and expert consultations, the impacts on all sectors were evaluated taking these trends explicitly into account. The results show that New Societal Trends can have a crucial impact on future energy demand beyond mere techno-economic potentials. In the best case scenario, “New Trends Efficient”, they can reduce final energy demand by 67% compared to the EU “Baseline” scenario in 2050. While in the “Worst Case” scenario, they could increase final energy demand by 40%. This paper opens up the discussion on how New Societal Trends will shape future energy demand and emphasizes the crucial role of policy-making therein. © 2021 The Authors Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167702
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Breslauer Str. 48, Karlsruhe, 76139, Germany; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Netherlands; National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation
Recommended Citation:
Brugger H.,Eichhammer W.,Mikova N.,et al. Energy Efficiency Vision 2050: How will new societal trends influence future energy demand in the European countries?[J]. Energy Policy,2021-01-01,152