DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111984
论文题名: How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners
作者: Hanna R. ; Gross R.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2021
卷: 149 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Climate change mitigation
; Discontinuity
; Disruption
; Energy systems models
; Foresight
; Scenarios
英文关键词: Computational methods
; Economics
; Simulation platform
; Agent-based model
; Energy systems modeling
; Energy systems optimisation
; Energy-systems models
; Political science
; Scenario studies
; Socio-economics
; Systematic Review
; Autonomous agents
; climate change
; energy policy
; future prospect
; modeling
; scenario analysis
英文摘要: Scenarios may be qualitative or quantitative, the latter of which can be developed using energy systems models. This study explores how different energy systems models and scenarios explicitly represent and assess potential disruptions and discontinuities. The focus is on futures studies and forward-looking scenario and modelling exercises. We apply definitions of ‘emergent’ (uncoordinated) and ‘purposive’ (coordinated) disruption to a systematic review on how energy systems models and scenarios have been used to capture disruption and discontinuity. We first conducted a review of reviews of energy models and scenarios to provide an overview of their common classifications. Additional searches then sought studies which use different types of models and scenarios to explore disruption and discontinuity. We analyse a subset of 30 of these modelling or scenario studies in which authors self-identify and represent disruption or discontinuity, finding that the most frequently used methods were qualitative, exploratory foresight scenarios or agent-based models. We conclude that policy makers could prepare more effectively for social, economic and political disruption by integrating multidisciplinary insights from social and political sciences, engineering and economics through a broader range of methods: exploratory, foresight scenarios, simulation and agent-based models and repurposed energy systems optimisation models. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167804
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Imperial College Centre for Energy Policy and Technology, Imperial College London, 16-18 Prince's Gardens, South Kensington, London, SW7 1NE, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Hanna R.,Gross R.. How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners[J]. Energy Policy,2021-01-01,149