globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111915
论文题名:
Analyzing uncertainty in projections of Canadian energy use and production: Results and insights from EMF 34 scenarios
作者: Hansen M.; Bhargava A.; Nadew M.; Stogran M.; Hansen L.; Hundal M.; Budgell P.; Safton R.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2021
卷: 148
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Canada ; Demand ; Energy ; Modeling ; Projections ; Supply
英文关键词: Energy policy ; Energy future ; Energy model ; Energy producers ; Energy system model ; Energy use ; Key variables ; Model system ; Scenario analysis ; Uncertainty analysis ; demand analysis ; electricity generation ; electricity supply ; energy use ; modeling ; scenario analysis ; uncertainty analysis ; Canada
英文摘要: This paper analyzes the uncertainty associated with Reference Case, or baseline, projections of Canadian energy use and production. We use the Canada Energy Regulator's Energy Futures modeling system to explore the impacts of changing key assumptions. The choice of assumptions and magnitude of change are guided by the scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 34 project. We find important variations across all scenarios. In particular, we note that Canada's role as an energy producer is important for interpreting projection and scenario results. Overall, this analysis shows that it is important to test key assumptions in a typical Reference Case projection. However, this analysis also highlights many complexities in energy system modeling. It is also important to consider the potential interplay between key variables. This speaks to the importance of broader scenario analysis, where multiple assumptions are changed in an internally consistent way, as a useful complement to the focused scenario analysis found in this paper. © 2020
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167805
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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Recommended Citation:
Hansen M.,Bhargava A.,Nadew M.,et al. Analyzing uncertainty in projections of Canadian energy use and production: Results and insights from EMF 34 scenarios[J]. Energy Policy,2021-01-01,148
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