DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112232
论文题名: Does ‘more’ equal ‘better’? – Analyzing the impact of diversification strategies on infrastructure in the European gas market
作者: Hauser P.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2021
卷: 153 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Diversification strategy
; European gas market
; Infrastructure investment
; Stochastic programming approach
英文关键词: Commerce
; Economic and social effects
; Gas industry
; Gas supply
; Gases
; Pipelines
; Stochastic programming
; Stochastic systems
; Diversification strategies
; European gas markets
; Gas demands
; Infrastructure investment
; Security of supply
; Stochastic optimization approach
; Stochastic programming approach
; Three dimensions
; Ukraine
; Uncertainty
; Investments
; energy market
; infrastructural development
; investment
; natural gas
; stochasticity
; uncertainty analysis
; Europe
英文摘要: The paper investigates investments in gas infrastructure considering uncertainties in European gas markets. Furthermore, the study addresses the question of whether (more) diversification provides a (better) security of supply improvement. Thus, a stochastic optimization approach is introduced. The uncertainties focus on 2030 and 2045 in three dimensions, namely the Ukraine gas transit, future LNG prices, and the expected gas demand. Considering three diversification strategies, the model GAMAMOD-EU.sto optimizes investments in pipelines, LNG import terminals and gas storages as well as the gas dispatch. Results illustrate trade-offs between optimal gas supply and diversification strategies. Investments in pipelines to North African suppliers are made across all strategies, while the building of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline depend on the respective diversification strategy. Diversification through LNG quota changes the dispatch results significantly. Investments in storages are almost not necessary over all strategies, however, storages provide flexibility to prevent supply shortages, when diversification strategies are applied. Conclusion for policy makers regarding what is needed for preventing malinvestments and high costs in the European gas market are: an enhanced relationship between Russia and the EU and a clear vision on the role of gas in the future European energy system that reduces demand uncertainty. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167810
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Chair of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business Management, Technische Universität Dresden, Münchner Platz 3, Dresden, 01069, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Hauser P.. Does ‘more’ equal ‘better’? – Analyzing the impact of diversification strategies on infrastructure in the European gas market[J]. Energy Policy,2021-01-01,153