DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112249
论文题名: FTT:Heat — A simulation model for technological change in the European residential heating sector
作者: Knobloch F. ; Pollitt H. ; Chewpreecha U. ; Lewney R. ; Huijbregts M.A.J. ; Mercure J.-F.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2021
卷: 153 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Behavioural modelling
; Decarbonisation pathways
; Energy modelling
; Policy simulation
; Renewable heating
; Technology diffusion
英文关键词: Behavioral research
; Decision making
; Diffusion
; Heating
; Housing
; Public policy
; Behavioral model
; Decarbonization pathway
; Energy modelling
; Heating sectors
; Policy simulation
; Renewable heating
; Residential heating
; Simulation model
; Technological change
; Technology diffusion
; Decarbonization
; alternative energy
; decision making
; heating
; policy development
; residential location
; technology diffusion
; Europe
英文摘要: We introduce a new bottom-up model for simulating Future Technology Transformations in the European residential heating sector, FTT:Heat. The model simulates the uptake and replacement of heating technologies by households in all individual Member States up to 2050, and allows to simulate the potential effect of real-world policy instruments aiming at an increased uptake of low-carbon technologies. It features an explicit representation of households' technology choices, based on observed preferences and non-linear diffusion dynamics. Decision-makers are modelled as individual households, which are subject to limited information and bounded rationality. Their decisions reflect behavioural factors and preferences at the micro level, and may result in sub-optimal outcomes from a macroeconomic perspective. For demonstration, we simulate policy mixes for reaching the EU's 2030 renewable heating targets in each Member State. Under current diffusion trends, some countries are estimated to continue an ongoing transition towards renewable heating, while others would hardly see any decarbonisation. For increasing the share of renewable heating by at least ten percentage points until 2030, 20 Member States need to introduce additional policies, the necessary stringency of which differs between countries. Due to the slow turnover of heating systems, resulting cost increases faced by households could persist over decades. © 2021 The Author(s) Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167865
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Science, Radboud University, Nijmegen, 6500 GL, Netherlands; Cambridge Econometrics Ltd, Covent Garden, Cambridge, CB1 2HT, United Kingdom; Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance (C-EENRG), University of Cambridge, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, United Kingdom; Global Systems Institute, Department of Geography, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Knobloch F.,Pollitt H.,Chewpreecha U.,et al. FTT:Heat — A simulation model for technological change in the European residential heating sector[J]. Energy Policy,2021-01-01,153