DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102093
论文题名: Exploring future copper demand, recycling and associated greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-28
作者: Ciacci L. ; Fishman T. ; Elshkaki A. ; Graedel T.E. ; Vassura I. ; Passarini F.
刊名: Global Environmental Change
ISSN: 9593780
出版年: 2020
卷: 63 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Circular economy
; Global warming
; Life cycle assessment
; Material flow analysis
; Scenario analysis
; Sustainable development goals
英文关键词: carbon dioxide
; copper
; demand analysis
; energy efficiency
; European Union
; greenhouse gas
; life cycle analysis
; natural capital
; recycling
; secondary production
; Europe
英文摘要: Copper is widely used in modern technology, but declining ore grades and depletion of natural deposits have raised concerns regarding sustainable demand-supply balance in the long term. The vulnerability to primary copper supply restrictions amplifies for countries dependant on imports, notably many EU Member States. Recycling of post-consumer scrap can provide a valuable source of essential material to the European industry. However, a considerable fraction of collected and processed copper old scrap is exported, while the remaining fraction is either not recovered or lost due to nonfunctional recycling undermining the implementation of a circular economy. In this work, material flow analysis, regression analysis, and life cycle assessment are combined to explore the possible evolution of four scenarios of copper demand in Europe to year 2050 and the potentials for greenhouse gas emissions reduction under material circularity conditions. The results show that for three of the four scenarios, secondary production would not comply with the carbon dioxide emissions reduction target of 50% below 2000 levels neither in case of combined aggressive recycling, moderate decarbonization of electricity, and energy efficiency improvements. In particular, for the scenario that describes a “business as usual” approach, the modelled future domestic demand can only be met by increasing primary inputs and, despite strong efforts to improve recycling at end-of-life, the fraction of old scrap in total metal demand seems likely to achieve 65% at best. Should that scenario ensue, the GHG emissions embodied in EU copper demand might result in an emissions gap of more than 15 TgCO2eq or about +260% the carbon dioxide reduction target. In contrast, the lowest environmental impacts are associated with a scenario emphasizing green technology and more equitable lifestyles. In that scenario, the secondary copper flows will gradually approach the expected demand, laying the foundation for achieving a circular economy with considerable potential for preserving natural capital and mitigating climate change. This possible future, however, requires dramatic changes in the current pattern of material production and consumption, as we discuss. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168150
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Industrial Chemistry “Toso Montanari”, Alma Mater Studiorum—University of Bologna, Bologna, 40136, Italy; School of Sustainability, Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, Herzliya, 4610101, Israel; Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry& Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, United States; Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, China
Recommended Citation:
Ciacci L.,Fishman T.,Elshkaki A.,et al. Exploring future copper demand, recycling and associated greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-28[J]. Global Environmental Change,2020-01-01,63