globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.102029
论文题名:
A framework for nitrogen futures in the shared socioeconomic pathways
作者: Kanter D.R.; Winiwarter W.; Bodirsky B.L.; Bouwman L.; Boyer E.; Buckle S.; Compton J.E.; Dalgaard T.; de Vries W.; Leclère D.; Leip A.; Müller C.; Popp A.; Raghuram N.; Rao S.; Sutton M.A.; Tian H.; Westhoek H.; Zhang X.; Zurek M.
刊名: Global Environmental Change
ISSN: 9593780
出版年: 2020
卷: 61
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Environmental policy ; Nitrogen pollution ; Scenarios
英文关键词: capitalism ; decision making ; environmental issue ; nitrogen ; nitrogen cycle ; pollution control ; pollution exposure ; socioeconomic conditions
英文摘要: Humanity's transformation of the nitrogen cycle has major consequences for ecosystems, climate and human health, making it one of the key environmental issues of our time. Understanding how trends could evolve over the course of the 21st century is crucial for scientists and decision-makers from local to global scales. Scenario analysis is the primary tool for doing so, and has been applied across all major environmental issues, including nitrogen pollution. However, to date most scenario efforts addressing nitrogen flows have either taken a narrow approach, focusing on a singular impact or sector, or have not been integrated within a broader scenario framework – a missed opportunity given the multiple environmental and socio-economic impacts that nitrogen pollution exacerbates. Capitalizing on our expanding knowledge of nitrogen flows, this study introduces a framework for new nitrogen-focused narratives based on the widely used Shared Socioeconomic Pathways that include all the major nitrogen-polluting sectors (agriculture, industry, transport and wastewater). These new narratives are the first to integrate the influence of climate and other environmental pollution control policies, while also incorporating explicit nitrogen-control measures. The next step is for them to be used as model inputs to evaluate the impact of different nitrogen production, consumption and loss trajectories, and thus advance understanding of how to address environmental impacts while simultaneously meeting key development goals. This effort is an important step in assessing how humanity can return to the planetary boundary of this essential element over the coming century. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168186
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Environmental Studies, New York University, 285 Mercer Street, 9th floor, New York, NY 10003, United States; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria; Institute of Environmental Engineering, University of Zielona Góra, Licealna 9, Zielona Góra, PL 65-417, Poland; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A31, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Vening Meineszgebouw A, Princetonlaan 8a, Utrecht, 3584 CB, Netherlands; Institutes of Energy and the Environment, Pennsylvania State University, 304 Forest Resources Building, University ParkPA 16802, United States; Environment Directorate, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2, rue André Pascal, Paris Cedex 16, 75775, France; US Environmental Protection Agency, Western Ecology Division, 200 SW 35th St., Corvallis, OR 97330, United States; Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, PO Box 50, Tjele, DK-8830, Denmark; Wageningen University and Research, Environmental Research, PO Box 47, AA Wageningen, NL-6700, Netherlands; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, Ispra, I-21027, Italy; University School of Biotechnology, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Dwarka, Sector-16C, Delhi, 110078, India; Norwegian Institute of Public Health, PO Box 222, Skøyen, Oslo, N-0213, Norway; NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, EH26 0QB, United Kingdom; International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, United States; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, The Hague, 2500 GH, Netherlands; Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, 301 Braddock Rd., Frostburg, MD 21532, United States; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Kanter D.R.,Winiwarter W.,Bodirsky B.L.,et al. A framework for nitrogen futures in the shared socioeconomic pathways[J]. Global Environmental Change,2020-01-01,61
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