DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102186
论文题名: Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty
作者: Moallemi E.A. ; Kwakkel J. ; de Haan F.J. ; Bryan B.A.
刊名: Global Environmental Change
ISSN: 9593780
出版年: 2020
卷: 65 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Adaptation
; Decision-making
; Participatory
; Robustness
; Stakeholder
; Sustainability
; Uncertainty
英文关键词: chemotaxonomy
; complexity
; decision making
; nature-society relations
; participatory approach
; stakeholder
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Modeling is a crucial approach for understanding the past and exploring the future of coupled human-natural systems. However, uncertainty in various forms challenges inferences from modeling results. Model-based support for decision-making has increasingly adopted an emerging exploratory approach. This approach addresses uncertainty explicitly through systematically exploring the implications of modeling assumptions, aiming to enhance the robustness of inferences from models. Despite a variety of applications, the extent and the way(s) that exploratory modeling can deal with the challenges that arise from the uncertainty and complexity of decision-making with stakeholders has not yet been systematically framed. We address this gap in two ways. First, we present a taxonomy of the ways that exploratory modeling can be used to inform robust inferences in coupled human-natural systems by mapping the technical capabilities of this approach in relation to the diversity of past applications. This subsequently guides an investigation of the practical benefits and challenges of these capabilities in handling uncertainty and complexity. Second, we discuss different ways for integrating genuine stakeholder engagement into exploratory modeling through transdisciplinary research. Finally we outline some priorities for future expansion of this research area. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168211
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, Australia; Designing Systems for Informed Resilience Engineering (DeSIRE), The 4TU Centre for Resilience Engineering (4TU.RE), Netherlands; Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Moallemi E.A.,Kwakkel J.,de Haan F.J.,et al. Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty[J]. Global Environmental Change,2020-01-01,65