DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102183
论文题名: Climate-Induced migration and unemployment in middle-income Africa
作者: Mueller V. ; Gray C. ; Hopping D.
刊名: Global Environmental Change
ISSN: 9593780
出版年: 2020
卷: 65 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Africa
; Climate anomalies
; Employment
; Migration
英文关键词: climate change
; migration
; population decline
; precipitation (climatology)
; spatiotemporal analysis
; unemployment
; urbanization
; Botswana
; Kenya
; Zambia
; Lacuna
英文摘要: One of the major unresolved questions in the study of vulnerability to climate change is how human migration will respond in low and middle-income countries. The present study directly addresses this lacuna by using census data on migration from 4 million individuals from three middle-income African countries over a 22-year period. We link these individuals to climate exposures in their origins and estimate climatic effects on migration using a fixed-effects regression model. We show that climate anomalies affect mobility in all three countries. Specifically, mobility declines by 19% with a 1-standard deviation increase in temperature in Botswana. Equivalent changes in precipitation cause declines in migration in Botswana (11%) and Kenya (10%), and increases in migration in Zambia (24%). The mechanisms underlying these effects appear to differ by country. Negative associations between precipitation anomalies, unemployment, and inactivity suggest migration declines may be due to an increased local demand for workers to offset production risk, while migration increases may be indicative of new opportunities in destinations. These country-specific findings highlight the contextually-specific nature of climate-migration relationships, and do not support claims that climate change is widely contributing to urbanization across Africa. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168212
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: School of Politics and Global Studies, Arizona State University, PO Box 873902, Tempe, AZ 85297-3902, United States; International Food Policy Research Institute, 1201 Eye Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005-3915, United States; UNC Department of Geography, CB #3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mueller V.,Gray C.,Hopping D.. Climate-Induced migration and unemployment in middle-income Africa[J]. Global Environmental Change,2020-01-01,65