DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102149
论文题名: One and a half century of avalanche risk to settlements in the upper Maurienne valley inferred from land cover and socio-environmental changes.
作者: Zgheib T. ; Giacona F. ; Granet-Abisset A.-M. ; Morin S. ; Eckert N.
刊名: Global Environmental Change
ISSN: 9593780
出版年: 2020
卷: 65 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Avalanche risk
; Diachronic analysis
; Exposure
; Geohistory
; Land cover changes
英文关键词: avalanche
; climate change
; environmental change
; image processing
; land cover
; landscape change
; natural hazard
; risk assessment
; settlement pattern
; socioeconomic impact
; Alps
; Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes
; France
; Maurienne Valley
; Savoie
英文摘要: Changes in mountain landscape can affect avalanche activity, causing changes in risk, potentially enhanced by a transition of the socio-environmental system and its underlying dynamics. Thus, integrative approaches combining biophysical and social sciences are required to assess changes in risk in all its dimensions. This study proposes a holistic methodology combining land cover change detection using advanced image processing techniques, geohistorical investigations and qualitative modelling of risk changes in order to infer the evolution of avalanche risk and its drivers in the upper Maurienne (French Alps) from 1860 to 2017. Results show that a continuous increase of forested areas associated with the retraction of agro-pastoral zones followed a period of land abandonment and depopulation. However, reforestation within avalanche paths remains largely incomplete and mostly absent in the majority of release areas, making a decrease in avalanche occurrence and propagation unlikely. This, combined with marked urban sprawl partially concentrated in avalanche prone areas, locally increased the exposure of residential settlements to avalanches. Hence, even if new defense structures have been set up, our analysis indicates that avalanche risk in the upper Maurienne increased through the study period. Even if local specificity related to physical dissimilarities and/or distinguished socio-economic trends always exist, our results may be valid for many high alpine valleys. Our approach is also transferable to other natural hazards, notably in wider mountain environments, as a contribution to the elaboration of effective adaptation strategies in a context of increasing risks related to combined climate change and socio-economic transitions. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168259
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: University Grenoble Alpes, INRAe, ETNA, Grenoble, 38000, France; University Grenoble Alpes, UMR CNRS 5190 Laboratoire de Recherche Historique Rhône-Alpes (LARHRA), France; University Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, Grenoble, France; CNRS, CNRM, Centre d'Etudes de la Neige, Grenoble, France
Recommended Citation:
Zgheib T.,Giacona F.,Granet-Abisset A.-M.,et al. One and a half century of avalanche risk to settlements in the upper Maurienne valley inferred from land cover and socio-environmental changes.[J]. Global Environmental Change,2020-01-01,65