| DOI: | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102275
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| 论文题名: | Climate variability and irregular migration to the European Union |
| 作者: | Cottier F.; Salehyan I.
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| 刊名: | Global Environmental Change
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| ISSN: | 9593780
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| 出版年: | 2021
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| 卷: | 69 | | 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | climate change
; drought
; European Union
; extreme event
; international migration
; rainfall
; spatiotemporal analysis
; Middle East
; Sub-Saharan Africa
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| 英文摘要: | The so-called ‘European Migrant Crisis’ has been blamed on armed conflict and economic misery, particularly in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. Some have suggested that this process has been exacerbated by climate change and weather events. In this paper, we evaluate these claims, focusing on the role of droughts in influencing irregular migration flows to the European Union. Drawing on temporally disaggregated data on the detection of unauthorized migrants at EU external borders, we examine how weather shocks affect irregular migration. We show that weather events may indeed influence migration. Yet, in contradiction to the findings from recent research, we find no evidence that a drought in a sending country increases unauthorized migration to the EU. If anything, and while not entirely conclusive, the incidence of drought seems rather to exert a negative, albeit moderate, impact on the size of migration flows, in particular for countries dependent on agriculture. Conversely, higher levels of rainfall increase migration. We interpret this as evidence that international migration is cost-prohibitive, and that adverse weather shocks reinforce existing financial barriers to migration. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168275
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, United States; Department of Political Science, University of North Texas, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Cottier F.,Salehyan I.. Climate variability and irregular migration to the European Union[J]. Global Environmental Change,2021-01-01,69
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