DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102291
论文题名: Scenario archetypes reveal risks and opportunities for global mountain futures
作者: Thorn J.P.R. ; Klein J.A. ; Steger C. ; Hopping K.A. ; Capitani C. ; Tucker C.M. ; Reid R.S. ; Marchant R.A.
刊名: Global Environmental Change
ISSN: 9593780
出版年: 2021
卷: 69 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Decision support
; Desirable futures
; Participatory scenario planning
; Science policy interface
; Stakeholder participation
; Sustainability science
英文关键词: adaptation
; complexity
; cultural heritage
; decision making
; environmental conditions
; global change
; mountain region
; scenario analysis
; smallholder
; socioeconomic conditions
英文摘要: Mountain social-ecological systems (MtSES) are transforming rapidly due to changes in multiple environmental and socioeconomic drivers. However, the complexity and diversity of MtSES present challenges for local communities, researchers and decision makers seeking to anticipate change and promote action towards sustainable MtSES. Participatory scenario planning can reveal potential futures and their interacting dynamics, while archetype analysis aggregates insights from site-based scenarios. We combined a systematic review of the global MtSES participatory scenarios literature and archetype analysis to identify emergent MtSES archetypal configurations. An initial sample of 1983 rendered 42 articles that contained 142 scenarios within which were 852 ‘futures states’. From these future states within the scenarios, we identified 59 desirable and undesirable futures that were common across studies. These ‘common futures’ were grouped into four clusters that correlated significantly with three social-ecological factors (GDP per capita, income inequality, and mean annual temperature). Using these clusters and their associated significant factors, we derived four MtSES scenario archetypal configurations characterized by similar key adaptation strategies, assumptions, risks, and uncertainties. We called these archetypes: (1) “revitalization through effective institutions and tourism”; (2) “local innovations in smallholder farming and forestry”; (3) “upland depopulation and increased risk of hazards”; and (4) “regulated economic and ecological prosperity”. Results indicate risks to be mitigated, including biodiversity loss, ecosystem degradation, cultural heritage change, loss of connection to the land, weak leadership, market collapse, upland depopulation, increased landslides, avalanches, mudflows and rock falls, as well as climate variability and change. Transformative opportunities lie in adaptive biodiversity conservation, income diversification, adaptation to market fluxes, improving transport and irrigation infrastructure, high quality tourism and preserving traditional knowledge. Despite the uncertainties arising from global environmental changes, these archetypes support better targeting of evidence-informed actions across scales and sectors in MtSES. © 2021 Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168350
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States; York Institute of Tropical Ecosystems, University of York, Department of Environment and Geography, Wentworth Way, Heslington, York, North Yorkshire YO10 5NG, United Kingdom; African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Upper Campus, Geological Sciences Building Level 6, 13 Library Road, Rondebosch, 7700, Cape Town, South Africa; Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States; Natural Resource Ecology Lab, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States; Human-Environment Systems, Boise State University, Boise, ID 83725, United States; Department of Anthropology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States
Recommended Citation:
Thorn J.P.R.,Klein J.A.,Steger C.,et al. Scenario archetypes reveal risks and opportunities for global mountain futures[J]. Global Environmental Change,2021-01-01,69