DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03890-4
论文题名: Simple rainfall indices for forecasting hazardous events of hydrologic and geologic nature
作者: Augusto Filho O. ; da Silva Júnior P.S. ; Eiras C.G.S.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 101, 期: 3 起始页码: 689
结束页码: 709
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Daily rainfall
; Floods
; Geographic information system (GIS)
; Landslides
; Mobile cycle coefficient (MCC)
; Rainfall maps
英文关键词: database
; flood forecasting
; flooding
; forecasting method
; GIS
; landslide
; precipitation intensity
; rainfall
; software
; trigger mechanism
; Brazil
; Sao Carlos
; Sao Paulo [Brazil]
英文摘要: Heavy rains are the main natural trigger agent of floods and slope movements responsible for significant economic and social losses in many regions of the Brazilian territory. The affected municipalities are generally scarce in technical and economic resources to invest in mitigation actions. This work aimed to define readily available rainfall indices to predict the occurrence of these dangerous events. The main pluviometric parameters used were the daily rainfall and the mobile cycle coefficient (MCC). MCC is defined as the ratio between the total amount of rainfall accumulated over a certain period and the accumulated rainfall considered normal for this period. The analyses were based on a spatial database containing daily rainfall, flood and landslides events that occurred from 1965 to 2016 in the São Carlos municipality (São Paulo, Brazil). The structuring of this database and the subsequent spatial analyses were performed using a geographic information system software. The results indicated good potential for the combined use of MCC and daily rainfall indices to predict floods in the study area. The correlations with landslides presented some incongruities that can be mainly explained by not considering the accumulated rainfall before the triggering of landslides and the small number of events available. The simplicity and easy access to these rainfall indices favor their use to subsidize Civil Defense preventive measures, while more detailed studies are not available. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168388
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geotechnics, School of Engineering of São Carlos, University of São Paulo, Av. Trabalhador São-Carlense, 400, São Carlos, SP 13566-590, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Augusto Filho O.,da Silva Júnior P.S.,Eiras C.G.S.. Simple rainfall indices for forecasting hazardous events of hydrologic and geologic nature[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,101(3)