DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04117-2
论文题名: Evaluation of tropical cyclone recurrence rate: factors contributing to epistemic uncertainty
作者: Bensi M. ; Weaver T.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 103, 期: 3 起始页码: 3011
结束页码: 3041
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Epistemic uncertainty
; Joint probability method
; Probabilistic storm surge hazard assessment
; Recurrence rate
; Tropical cyclone
英文关键词: hazard assessment
; recurrence interval
; storm surge
; storm track
; tropical cyclone event
; uncertainty analysis
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; United States
英文摘要: In this paper, we identify, assess and characterize epistemic uncertainties associated with the estimation of tropical cyclone storm recurrence rates. To illustrate the potential effects of epistemic uncertainty, we develop a range of storm surge recurrence rates at representative locations along the North Atlantic coast of the USA. We further illustrate how storm rate uncertainty impacts estimates of storm surge hazards. We consider the following factors when evaluating epistemic uncertainty in storm recurrence rate: (1) use of recorded storm track data versus interpolated storm track data, (2) the weighting method used for “counting” historical storms in the vicinity of the representative sites, (3) the kernel size used in the selected weighting method, (4) the intensity parameter used to filter “inconsequential storms” from the historical record, (5) the threshold value associated with the selected intensity filter, (6) the historical time period considered in the evaluation and (7) the impact of coastline geometry definition when partitioning storm populations. We observe that storm rate varies over orders of magnitude when considering these combinations of factors. When considering the effect of epistemic uncertainty in storm recurrence rate on estimated storm hazards, we find that the corresponding range of storm surge elevation spans multiple meters for a given annual exceedance frequency. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168404
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, 1143 Glenn Martin Hall, College Park, MD 20742, United States; U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bensi M.,Weaver T.. Evaluation of tropical cyclone recurrence rate: factors contributing to epistemic uncertainty[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,103(3)