DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03881-5
论文题名: Spatio-statistical analysis of rainfall fluctuation, anomaly and trend in the Hindu Kush region using ARIMA approach
作者: Dawood M. ; Rahman A.-U. ; Ullah S. ; Mahmood S. ; Rahman G. ; Azam K.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 101, 期: 2 起始页码: 449
结束页码: 464
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Anomaly
; ARIMA
; Fluctuation
; Rainfall
; Trend
英文关键词: precipitation assessment
; rainfall
; river discharge
; spatiotemporal analysis
; trend analysis
; Hindu Kush
英文摘要: This paper focuses on the spatio-statistical analysis of rainfall fluctuation, anomaly and trend in the Hindu Kush region using auto-regressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) approach. In the study area, trend in rainfall has significant impact on fluctuations in river discharge, which ultimately led to floods and hydrological drought. In this study, rainfall has been used as a climatic parameter. For this study, average annual and mean monthly rainfall data for Dir, Timergara, Saidu, Chitral, Drosh, Malam Jabba and Kalam meteorological stations located in the study region were gathered from Regional Meteorological Center Peshawar. In the study area, the rainfall is mostly received during two prominent periods, i.e., summer rainfall from monsoon, whereas winter and spring rainfall from western depressions. In the study area, Malam Jabba has recorded the heavy mean annual rainfall (1647 mm) and is considered as the humid station followed by met station Dir with a 1362 mm mean annual rainfall. Similarly, Saidu met station received 1050 mm mean annual rainfall and Kalam 1038 mm, whereas Timergara, Drosh and Chitral recorded 796 mm, 568 mm and 458 mm, respectively. The temporal data regarding rainfall were calculated and simulated in Addinsoft Excel state 2014 by applying ARIMA statistical model for trend prediction, fluctuations and anomaly. The analysis indicates that in terms of rainfall, an increasing trend has been detected at Dir, Chitral, Saidu and Kalam meteorological stations, whereas a declining trend has been recorded at Timergara, Drosh and Malam Jabba meteorological stations. In terms of rainfall anomaly, the met station Dir has indicated comparatively high positive anomaly. Contrary to this, the met stations of Saidu and Drosh have experienced negative rainfall anomaly. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168454
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Geography, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, 25120, Pakistan; Department of Geography, Government College University Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan; Department of Geography, University of Gujrat, Gujrat, Pakistan; Department of LMS, National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan
Recommended Citation:
Dawood M.,Rahman A.-U.,Ullah S.,et al. Spatio-statistical analysis of rainfall fluctuation, anomaly and trend in the Hindu Kush region using ARIMA approach[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,101(2)