DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03911-2
论文题名: Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective
作者: Mäll M. ; Nakamura R. ; Suursaar Ü. ; Shibayama T.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 102, 期: 1 起始页码: 67
结束页码: 99
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Climate change
; Cyclone tracks
; ETC
; FVCOM-SWAVE
; Precipitation
; Sea level
; Storm surge
英文关键词: air temperature
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; extratropical cyclone
; extreme event
; relative humidity
; storm surge
; surface temperature
; wave height
; weather forecasting
; westerly
; Atlantic Ocean
; Baltic Sea
英文摘要: In order to estimate the possible parameters of future extreme extratropical cyclones (ETCs), a pseudo-climate modelling study of three historical storms originating from the Atlantic Ocean and one from the Black Sea area was performed using multi-model approach considering IPCC emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the twenty-first century. Applying Weather Research and Forecasting atmosphere model (WRF), Finite Volume Community Ocean model (FVCOM-SWAVE) and the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model, the changes in initial conditions in atmospheric air temperature, sea surface temperature and relative humidity were considered on the basis of 14 CMIP5 general circulation models ensemble. According to the future scenario results, no notable changes are expected in minimum atmospheric pressure within the ETCs of the future; however, the low pressure area was slightly larger and the strong wind zone was extending further south with greater peak wind speeds in the future (year 2081–2100) simulations. This, in turn, yielded a small surge height increase at Pärnu under RCP4.5 scenario; however, under RCP8.5 scenario the surge increase was up to 22–59 cm. Westerly approaching ETCs will bring more precipitation to the Baltic Sea area in the (warmer) future. In case of a southerly cyclone, the results were more mixed. An insignificant increase in wave heights during extreme storm conditions occurred. Although RCP8.5 future scenario is usually considered as unrealistic, the results of this study still suggest that the extreme ETCs may become more dangerous in the future, although probably not as certainly as tropical cyclones. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168613
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8555, Japan; Civil Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, Niigata University, 8050, Ninocho, Nishi-ku, Niigata-shi, Niigata 950-2181, Japan; Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, Tallinn, 12618, Estonia
Recommended Citation:
Mäll M.,Nakamura R.,Suursaar Ü.,et al. Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,102(1)