DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3251-x
论文题名: Flood hazard assessment from storm tides, rain and sea level rise for a tidal river estuary
作者: Orton P.M. ; Conticello F.R. ; Cioffi F. ; Hall T.M. ; Georgas N. ; Lall U. ; Blumberg A.F. ; MacManus K.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 102, 期: 2 起始页码: 729
结束页码: 757
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Floods
; Hudson River
; Sea level rise
; Storm surge
; Tidal river
; Tropical cyclones
英文关键词: flooding
; hazard assessment
; intertidal environment
; precipitation intensity
; sea level change
; storm surge
; streamflow
; Hudson River
; United States
英文摘要: Cities and towns along the tidal Hudson River are highly vulnerable to flooding through the combination of storm tides and high streamflows, compounded by sea level rise. Here a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, validated by comparing peak water levels for 76 historical storms, is applied in a probabilistic flood hazard assessment. In simulations, the model merges streamflows and storm tides from tropical cyclones (TCs), offshore extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and inland “wet extratropical” cyclones (WETCs). The climatology of possible ETC and WETC storm events is represented by historical events (1931–2013), and simulations include gauged streamflows and inferred ungauged streamflows (based on watershed area) for the Hudson River and its tributaries. The TC climatology is created using a stochastic statistical model to represent a wider range of storms than is contained in the historical record. TC streamflow hydrographs are simulated for tributaries spaced along the Hudson, modeled as a function of TC attributes (storm track, sea surface temperature, maximum wind speed) using a statistical Bayesian approach. Results show WETCs are important to flood risk in the upper tidal river (e.g., Albany, New York), ETCs are important in the estuary (e.g., New York City) and lower tidal river, and TCs are important at all locations due to their potential for both high surge and extreme rainfall. The raising of floods by sea level rise is shown to be reduced by ~ 30–60% at Albany due to the dominance of streamflow for flood risk. This can be explained with simple channel flow dynamics, in which increased depth throughout the river reduces frictional resistance, thereby reducing the water level slope and the upriver water level. © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168661
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ, United States; Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile ed Ambinetale, DICEA, “La Sapienza” University of Rome, Rome, Italy; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Orton P.M.,Conticello F.R.,Cioffi F.,et al. Flood hazard assessment from storm tides, rain and sea level rise for a tidal river estuary[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,102(2)