DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03902-3
论文题名: Pan-European hydrodynamic models and their ability to identify compound floods
作者: Paprotny D. ; Vousdoukas M.I. ; Morales-Nápoles O. ; Jonkman S.N. ; Feyen L.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 101, 期: 3 起始页码: 933
结束页码: 957
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Hindcast
; Precipitation
; Reanalysis
; River discharge
; Storm surge
英文关键词: climate change
; flood
; hydrodynamics
; modeling
; runoff
; storm surge
; Belgium
; France
; Ireland
; Italy
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: The interaction between storm surges and inland run-off has been gaining increasing attention recently, as they have the potential to result in compound floods. In Europe, several flood events of this type have been recorded in the past century in Belgium, France, Ireland, Italy and UK. First projections of compound flood hazard under climate change have been made, but no study has so far analysed whether existing, independent climate and hydrodynamic models are able to reproduce the co-occurrence of storm surges, precipitation, river discharges or waves. Here, we investigate the dependence between the different drivers in different observational and modelled data set, utilizing gauge records and high-resolution outputs of climate reanalyses and hindcasts, hydrodynamic models of European coasts and rivers. The results show considerable regional differences in strength of the dependence in surge–precipitation and surge–discharge pairs. The models reproduce those dependencies, and the time lags between the flood drivers, rather well in north-western Europe, but less successfully in the southern part. Further, we identified several compound flood events in the reanalysis data. We were able to link most of those modelled events with historical reports of flood or storm losses. However, false positives and false negatives were also present in the reanalysis and several large compound floods were missed by the reanalysis. All in all, the study still shows that accurate representation of compound floods by independent models of each driver is possible, even if not yet achievable at every location. © 2020, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168664
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Section Hydrology, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, Delft, 2628 CN, Netherlands; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico Fermi 2749, Ispra, 21027, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Paprotny D.,Vousdoukas M.I.,Morales-Nápoles O.,et al. Pan-European hydrodynamic models and their ability to identify compound floods[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,101(3)