DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04257-5
论文题名: Wet and dry spell feature charts for practical uses
作者: Şen Z. ; Şişman E. ; Dabanli I.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 104, 期: 3 起始页码: 1975
结束页码: 1986
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Drought
; Dry (wet) spell
; Duration
; Intensity
; Magnitude
; Return period
; Risk
英文关键词: drought
; dry season
; hydrometeorology
; magnitude
; precipitation intensity
; return period
; risk assessment
; river discharge
; water demand
; wet season
; Danube River
; New Jersey
; United States
英文摘要: Water resources management is dependent on wet and dry spells occurrences in an alternative manner. Therefore, information about their probabilistic occurrence frequencies and statistical parameters are the most required quantities for optimum and well-balanced operations for water demand. Among the most important dry spells are the meteorological (precipitation) and hydrological (runoff, stream flow, reservoir level, ground water level, etc.) drought occurrences and their future expectations under a certain level of risk (exceedance probability) or return period, which is the inverse of the risk. Firstly, this paper presents detection of wet and dry spell parameters among which are the duration, maximum surplus or deficit, magnitude, and intensity. Secondly, a set of beneficial charts is presented in the new graphical form for each dry (wet) spell characteristic versus different risk levels (0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04 0.02, 0.01, 0.004 and 0.002) corresponding to return periods (2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year, 250-year and 500-year). These applications of the methodology are presented for New Jersey Statewide annual precipitation and Danube River annual discharge records each with more than 100 years records. Finally, it is found that the mathematical relationship between each wet and dry spell parameter and the return periods abide with exponential function, which appears on semi-logarithmic papers as straight lines. Consequently, it can be generalized for the study area that any drought (wet) parameters variation with the return period appears as exponential function for hydro-meteorological records. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168730
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Civil Engineering Department, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Istanbul Medipol University, Kavacık, Istanbul, 34181, Turkey; Climate Change Researches Application and Research Center (IKLIMER), Istanbul Medipol University, Kavacık, Istanbul, 34181, Turkey; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, PO Box 80234, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia
Recommended Citation:
Şen Z.,Şişman E.,Dabanli I.. Wet and dry spell feature charts for practical uses[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,104(3)