globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04889-1
论文题名:
Credibility of design rainfall estimates for drainage infrastructures: extent of disregard in Nigeria and proposed framework for practice
作者: Aiyelokun O.; Pham Q.B.; Aiyelokun O.; Malik A.; Adarsh S.; Mohammadi B.; Linh N.T.T.; Zakwan M.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Design rainfall estimates ; Parametric bootstrap ; Stochastic simulation ; Two-dimensional Monte Carlo framework ; Variability and uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Rainfall intensity or depth estimates are vital input for hydrologic and hydraulic models used in designing drainage infrastructures. Unfortunately, these estimates are susceptible to different sources of uncertainties including climate change, which could have high implications on the cost and design of hydraulic structures. This study adopts a systematic literature review to ascertain the disregard of credibility assessment of rainfall estimates in Nigeria. Thereafter, a simple framework for informing the practice of reliability check of rainfall estimates was proposed using freely available open-source tools and applied to the north central region of Nigeria. The study revealed through a synthesis matrix that in the last decade, both empirical and theoretical methods have been applied in predicting design rainfall intensities or depths for different frequencies across Nigeria, but none of the selected studies assessed the credibility of the design estimates. This study has established through the application of the proposed framework that drainage infrastructure designed in the study area using 100–1000-year return periods are more susceptible to error. And that the extent of the credibility of quantitative estimates of extreme rains leading to flooding is not equal for each variability indicator across a large spatial region. Hence, to optimize informed decision-making regarding flood risk reduction by risk assessor, variability and uncertainty of rainfall estimates should be assessed spatially to minimize erroneous deductions. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168868
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Institute of Applied Technology, Thu Dau Mot University, Binh Duong province, Viet Nam; Department of Geospatial Analytics, Olivearc Solutions, Lagos, Nigeria; Punjab Agricultural University, Regional Research Station, Bathinda, Punjab 151001, India; Department of Civil Engineering, TKM College of Engineering, Kollam, 691005, India; Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, Lund, SE-223 62, Sweden; Thuyloi University, 175 Tay Son, Dong Da, Hanoi, Viet Nam; Civil Engineering Department, IIT, Roorkee, India

Recommended Citation:
Aiyelokun O.,Pham Q.B.,Aiyelokun O.,et al. Credibility of design rainfall estimates for drainage infrastructures: extent of disregard in Nigeria and proposed framework for practice[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01
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