DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04554-7
论文题名: A combined structural and seasonal approach to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard in summertime
作者: Bergonse R. ; Oliveira S. ; Gonçalves A. ; Nunes S. ; da Câmara C. ; Zêzere J.L.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 106, 期: 3 起始页码: 2545
结束页码: 2573
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Hazard assessment
; Portugal
; Seasonal variables
; Structural approach
; Wildfire susceptibility
英文关键词: comparative study
; hazard assessment
; meteorological hazard
; seasonal variation
; summer
; wildfire
; Portugal
英文摘要: Wildfire susceptibility and hazard models based on drivers that change only on a multiyear timescale are considered of a structural nature. They ignore specific short-term conditions in any year and period within the year, especially summer, when most wildfire damage occurs in southern Europe. We investigate whether the predictive capacity of structural wildfire susceptibility and hazard models can be improved by integrating a seasonal dimension, expressed by three variables with yearly to seasonal timescales: (1) a meteorological index rating fuel flammability at the onset of summer; (2) the scarcity of fuel associated with the burned areas of the previous year, and (3) the excessive abundance of fuel in especially fire-prone areas that have not been burned in the previous ten years. We describe a new methodology for combining the structural maps with the seasonal variables, producing year-specific seasonal susceptibility and hazard maps. We then compare the structural and seasonal maps as to their capacity to predict burnt areas during the summer period in a set of eight independent years. The seasonal maps revealed a higher predictive capacity in 75% of the validation period, both for susceptibility and hazard, when only the highest class was considered. This percentage was reduced to 50% when the two highest classes were considered together. In some years, structural factors and other unconsidered variables probably exert a strong influence over the spatial pattern of wildfire incidence. These findings can complement existing structural data and improve the mapping tools used to define wildfire prevention and mitigation actions. © 2021, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168913
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Centre for Geographical Studies, Universidade de Lisboa, Rua Branca Edmée Marques, Cidade Universitária, Lisbon, 1600-276,, Portugal; Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, 1749-016,, Portugal
Recommended Citation:
Bergonse R.,Oliveira S.,Gonçalves A.,et al. A combined structural and seasonal approach to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard in summertime[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,106(3)