DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04510-5
论文题名: Risk analysis of tripping accidents of power grid caused by typical natural hazards based on FTA-BN model
作者: Bian H. ; Zhang J. ; Li R. ; Zhao H. ; Wang X. ; Bai Y.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 106, 期: 3 起始页码: 1771
结束页码: 1795
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Bayesian network
; Fault tree analysis
; Natural hazards
; Power grid
; Risk analysis
; Tripping accident
英文关键词: accident
; Bayesian analysis
; natural hazard
; numerical model
; power generation
; power line
; risk assessment
英文摘要: As the scale of the power grid becomes larger, the requirements for transmission reliability are getting higher. Due to the large geographical span and the harsh environment of the power transmission line, it has become the most severely affected equipment of the power grid by natural factors. However, the quantitative assessment of transmission line tripping accidents caused by multiple natural hazards has rarely been investigated. In this study, a risk analysis method to probabilistically analyze the tripping accidents of power transmission lines caused by wildfire, lightning, strong wind and ice storm was proposed. The analysis process consists of comprehensively identifying the risk of tripping accidents based on fault tree analysis and dynamically performing the predictive analysis of tripping accident evolution process in transmission line from causes to consequences based on Bayesian network. Critical risk evolution paths corresponding to four natural hazards are determined through a 72-node BN. The source risks of the four critical risk evolution paths are artificial ignition source from the wildfire path, aging from the lightning path, thoughtless of surrounding environment from the strong wind path and wind effect from the ice storm path. The countermeasures of tripping accidents are derived through the source risks and synergy between risks in three scenario analysis. This study is expected to examine the key challenges of risk management in power grid tripping accidents, which provides technical supports for accident preventing, handling and recovering of tripping accidents of the power transmission line according to “scenario–response”-based hazard response strategy. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168921
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing, 102209, China; School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing, 100083, China
Recommended Citation:
Bian H.,Zhang J.,Li R.,et al. Risk analysis of tripping accidents of power grid caused by typical natural hazards based on FTA-BN model[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,106(3)