DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04459-x
论文题名: Pure risk premium rating of debris flows based on a dynamic run-out model: a case study in Anzhou, China
作者: Deng Z. ; Liu J. ; Guo L. ; Li J. ; Li J. ; Jia Y.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 106, 期: 1 起始页码: 235
结束页码: 253
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Debris flow
; FLO-2D
; Pure risk premium
; Risk
英文关键词: debris flow
; dynamic analysis
; extreme event
; global warming
; natural hazard
; quantitative analysis
; risk assessment
; sediment transport
; China
; Sichuan
英文摘要: Debris flow risk is growing with the current increases in landscape exploitation and extreme precipitation events associated with global warming. Insurance is an efficient approach to cope with disasters. Based on the quantitative assessment, the debris flow hazard was obtained by a dynamic run-out model (FLO-2D), and the pure risk premiums of debris flow disaster were rating in a high-risk region (Anzhou) in Sichuan, China. Simulation results indicated that disastrous debris flows would reoccur every 5 years on average under the contemporary climatic and geological conditions of the study area. The mountain region experienced a wider area affected by debris flows than plains and hills; however, its area affected by low debris flow depth (d < 0.1 m) accounts for a larger proportion (56.69% and 22.60%, respectively). The probability of sub-basins with basin slopes of 5°–10° experiencing serious debris flows was pretty close to the probability of sub-basins with slopes of 25°–35°, which are considered to be susceptible to trigger debris flows. Furthermore, for relatively flat sub-basins (slopes < 25°), the part closer to source was more susceptible to higher flow depth. Risk assessment results showed that the significant spatial difference between the distribution of debris flow risk and hazard largely linked to the distribution of at-risk element (buildings). The pure risk premium of Anzhou was rated as 0.69–25.48‰ depending on the proportion of at-risk buildings to insured buildings, which highlights the need to encourage or require more low-risk and secure buildings to participate in insurance schemes to share the debris flow risk of the entire region. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168982
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Recommended Citation:
Deng Z.,Liu J.,Guo L.,et al. Pure risk premium rating of debris flows based on a dynamic run-out model: a case study in Anzhou, China[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,106(1)