DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04310-3
论文题名: Cost–benefit analyses to assess the potential of Operational Earthquake Forecasting prior to a mainshock in Europe
作者: Douglas J. ; Azarbakht A.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 105, 期: 1 起始页码: 293
结束页码: 311
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Decision making
; Feasibility study
; Nomogram
; Parametric analysis
; Risk mitigation actions
; Time-dependent seismic hazard
英文关键词: aftershock
; cost-benefit analysis
; decision making
; earthquake magnitude
; earthquake rupture
; forecasting method
; mitigation
; risk assessment
; seismic hazard
; time dependent behavior
; Europe
英文摘要: In the past couple of decades, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) has been proposed as a way of mitigating earthquake risk. In particular, it has the potential to reduce human losses (injuries and deaths) by triggering actions such as reinforcing earthquake drills and preventing access to vulnerable structures during a period of increased seismic hazard. Despite the dramatic increases in seismic hazard in the immediate period before a mainshock (of up to 1000 times has been observed), the probability of a potentially damaging earthquake occurring in the coming days or weeks remains small (generally less than 5%). Therefore, it is necessary to balance the definite cost of taking an action against the uncertain chance that it will mitigate earthquake losses. In this article, parametric cost–benefit analyses using a recent seismic hazard model for Europe and a wide range of inputs are conducted to assess when potential actions for short-term OEF are cost–beneficial prior to a severe mainshock. Ninety-six maps for various combinations of input parameters are presented. These maps show that low-cost actions (costing less than 1% of the mitigated losses) are cost–beneficial within the context of OEF for areas of moderate to high seismicity in the Mediterranean region. The actions triggered by OEF in northern areas of the continent are, however, unlikely to be cost–beneficial unless very large increases in seismicity are observed or very low-cost actions are possible. © 2020, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168992
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, James Weir Building, 75 Montrose Street, Glasgow, G1 1XJ, United Kingdom; Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Arak University, P.O. Box 38156-8-8349, Arak, Iran
Recommended Citation:
Douglas J.,Azarbakht A.. Cost–benefit analyses to assess the potential of Operational Earthquake Forecasting prior to a mainshock in Europe[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,105(1)