DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04582-3
论文题名: Comparative study of very short-term flood forecasting using physics-based numerical model and data-driven prediction model
作者: Hussain F. ; Wu R.-S. ; Wang J.-X.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 107, 期: 1 起始页码: 249
结束页码: 284
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Early warning
; Flood forecasting
; HEC-HMS
; Radar rainfall
; SVM model
; WASH123D
英文关键词: comparative study
; early warning system
; flood forecasting
; hydrological modeling
; numerical model
; prediction
; rainfall
; support vector machine
; water level
; Taiwan
英文摘要: Reliable hourly flood forecasting using weather radar rainfall data for early warning system is essential for reducing natural disaster risk during extreme typhoon events. This study proposed a novel approach integrated with physics-based WASH123D and HEC-HMS models to forecast 1 h ahead flood level in the Fengshan Creek basin, northern Taiwan. The comparison was done with data-driven support vector machine (SVM) model, and performances were assessed by using statistical indicators (root mean square error, correlation coefficient, the error of time to peak flood level, the error of peak flood). Four typhoons and two plum rain events (with 620 data sets) were selected for the process of model calibration and validation. The model performs better when it used quantitative precipitation estimate radar data rather than rain gauge data. Results of using 1 h ahead quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) as input for flood forecasting were encouraging but not feasible to use directly for early flood warning system due to errors in peak flood levels and timing. Therefore, the improvement in accuracy of 1 h ahead flood forecasting was done using physics-based approach and SVM model. The systematic comparison revealed that the SVM model is an attractive way out to improve the accuracy of QPF forecasted flood levels but unable to fully describe the flood level patterns in terms of timings and flood peaks, while the results obtained by the physics-based approach were accurate and much better than the SVM model. The approach fully described the physics of hydrograph patterns and outputs have exactly the same 1 h ahead predictions, in excellent agreement with observations. The reliable and accurate reflections of timing and amount of flood peaks in all selected typhoons by a newly developed physics-based approach with its operational nature are recommended to use by the government in the future for early warning to reduce the flood impacts during typhoon events. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169085
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, National Central University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan; Department of Agricultural Engineering, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
Recommended Citation:
Hussain F.,Wu R.-S.,Wang J.-X.. Comparative study of very short-term flood forecasting using physics-based numerical model and data-driven prediction model[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,107(1)