DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04584-1
论文题名: Projection of future extreme precipitation: a robust assessment of downscaled daily precipitation
作者: Pham H.X. ; Shamseldin A.Y. ; Melville B.W.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 107, 期: 1 起始页码: 311
结束页码: 329
语种: 英语
中文关键词: CGCM3
; Daily precipitation
; Dynamic downscaling
; Extreme precipitation
; GP/PDS
; HadCM3
; Regional frequency analysis
; Statistical downscaling
英文关键词: downscaling
; extreme event
; frequency analysis
; future prospect
; precipitation assessment
; return period
; statistical analysis
; New Zealand
; North Island
; Waikato
; Waikato Basin
英文摘要: Statistical and dynamic downscaling approaches are commonly used to downscale large-scale climatic variables from global circulation (GCM) and regional circulation (RCM) model outputs to local precipitation. The performance of these two approaches may differ from each other for daily precipitation projections when applied in the same region. This is examined in this study based on the estimation of extreme precipitation. Daily precipitation series are generated from GCM HadCM3, CGCM3/T47 and RCM HadCM3 models for both historical hindcasts and future projections in accordance with the period from 1971 to 2070. The Waikato catchment of New Zealand is selected as a case study. Deterministic and probabilistic performances of the GCM and RCM simulations are evaluated using root-mean-square-error (RMSE) coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) coefficient and equitable threat score (ETS). The value of RMSE, PBIAS and ETS is 2.89, − 2.16, 0.171 and 8.72, − 4.01, 0.442 for mean areal and at-site daily precipitation estimations, respectively. The study results reveal that the use of frequency analysis of partial duration series (FA/PDS) is very effective in evaluating the accuracy of downscaled daily precipitation series. Both the statistical and the dynamic downscaling perform well for simulating daily precipitation at station level for a return period equal to or less than 100 years. However, the latter outperforms the former for daily precipitation simulation at catchment level. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169292
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand; Department of Regulatory Services, Northland Regional Council, Private Bag 9021, Whangarei, New Zealand
Recommended Citation:
Pham H.X.,Shamseldin A.Y.,Melville B.W.. Projection of future extreme precipitation: a robust assessment of downscaled daily precipitation[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,107(1)