DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04405-x
论文题名: An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards
作者: Ramos Filho G.M. ; Coelho V.H.R. ; Freitas E.S. ; Xuan Y. ; Almeida C.N.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 105, 期: 3 起始页码: 2409
结束页码: 2429
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Antecedent precipitation index
; Flood hazards warning
; Intermediate rainfall intensity threshold
; Peak rainfall intensity
; Rainfall threshold method
; Tolerance limits
英文关键词: antecedent conditions
; flash flood
; flood control
; flooding
; hazard assessment
; precipitation assessment
; precipitation intensity
; prediction
; Brazil
; Sao Paulo [Brazil]
; Sao Paulo [Sao Paulo (STT)]
英文摘要: This paper presents an improved method of using threshold of peak rainfall intensity for robust flood/flash flood evaluation and warnings in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The improvements involve the use of two tolerance levels and the delineating of an intermediate threshold by incorporating an exponential curve that relates rainfall intensity and Antecedent Precipitation Index (API). The application of the tolerance levels presents an average increase of 14% in the Probability of Detection (POD) of flood and flash flood occurrences above the upper threshold. Moreover, a considerable exclusion (63%) of non-occurrences of floods and flash floods in between the two thresholds significantly reduce the number of false alarms. The intermediate threshold using the exponential curves also exhibits improvements for almost all time steps of both hydrological hazards, with the best results found for floods correlating 8-h peak intensity and 8 days API, with POD and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) values equal to 81% and 82%, respectively. This study provides strong indications that the new proposed rainfall threshold-based approach can help reduce the uncertainties in predicting the occurrences of floods and flash floods. © 2020, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169320
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa, 58051-900, Brazil; Department of Geosciences, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa, 58051-900, Brazil; College of Engineering, Swansea University Bay Campus, Swansea, SA1 8EN, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Ramos Filho G.M.,Coelho V.H.R.,Freitas E.S.,et al. An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,105(3)