DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04318-9
论文题名: On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change
作者: Ruiz-Salcines P. ; Appendini C.M. ; Salles P. ; Rey W. ; Vigh J.L.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 105, 期: 1 起始页码: 431
结束页码: 459
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Hurricanes
; Natural hazards
; Public policy
; Risk atlas
; Risk management
英文关键词: climate change
; flood
; general circulation model
; hazard management
; hurricane
; natural hazard
; risk assessment
; storm surge
; Colima
; Manzanillo
; Mexico [North America]
; Patricia
英文摘要: This study presents a new approach to assess storm surge risk from tropical cyclones under climate change by direct calculation of the local flood levels using a limited number of events with an associated probability. The approach is based on the near-worst-case flood scenario, associated with a known tropical cyclone wind intensity probability (return period). We applied the method for the locality of Manzanillo, Colima, Mexico, using synthetic tropical cyclones derived from six different general circulation models for the present and future climates under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The synthetic events allowed the characterization of the wind intensity for the present and future climates for a given return period, as well as to determine the key tropical cyclones parameters related to storm surge. For Hurricane Patricia (2015), the strongest tropical cyclone to impact the region, we determined that its 95 m/s winds have a return period above 4000 years for the present climate and 198 years in a future climate scenario. Using Hurricane Patricia’s peak wind intensity, we created hypothetical events representing all possible approaches of tropical cyclones (211 events) to Manzanillo. We forced a hydrodynamic model with the hypothetical events over a mesh created with LiDAR-derived topography and then calculated the storm surge to create the near-worst-case flood scenario based on the maximum envelopes of water (MEOWs) and the maximum of MEOWs. Using those results, we created flood risk maps at city block level based on the combination of flood hazard and socioeconomic vulnerability maps. The presented method provides a tool for tropical cyclones storm surge hazard and risk assessment by generating near-worst-case flood maps under projected climates using a limited set of hypothetical events. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169327
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Laboratorio de Ingeniería y Procesos Costeros, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Puerto de abrigo s/n, Sisal, Yucatán 97356, Mexico; Programa de Maestría y Doctorado en Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, C.P. 04510, Mexico; Laboratorio Nacional de Resiliencia Costera, Laboratorios Nacionales CONACYT, Sisal, 97356, Mexico; Centro de Investigaciones Oceanográficas e Hidrográficas del Caribe: Cartagena de Indias, Bolívar, Colombia; Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80027, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ruiz-Salcines P.,Appendini C.M.,Salles P.,et al. On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,105(1)