DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04525-y
论文题名: Evaluation of parametric wind models for more accurate modeling of storm surge: a case study of Hurricane Michael
作者: Vijayan L. ; Huang W. ; Yin K. ; Ozguven E. ; Burns S. ; Ghorbanzadeh M.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 106, 期: 3 起始页码: 2003
结束页码: 2024
语种: 英语
中文关键词: ADCIRC
; Hurricane Michael
; Parametric wind model
; Storm surge modeling
英文关键词: accuracy assessment
; hurricane event
; hydrodynamics
; natural hazard
; numerical model
; storm surge
; wind velocity
; Gulf Coast [United States]
; United States
; Florida
英文摘要: Storm surge induced by hurricane is a major threat to the Gulf Coasts of the United States. A numerical modeling study was conducted to simulate the storm surge during Hurricane Michael, a category 5 hurricane that landed on the Florida Panhandle in 2018. A high-resolution model mesh was used in the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model to simulate storm surge and tides during the hurricane. Two parametric wind models, Holland 1980 model and Holland 2010 model, have been evaluated for their effects on the accuracy of storm surge modeling by comparing simulated and observed maximum water levels along the coast. The wind model parameters are determined by observed hurricane wind and pressure data. Results indicate that both Holland 1980 and Holland 2010 wind models produce reasonable accuracy in predicting maximum water level in Mexico Beach, with errors between 1 and 3.7%. Comparing to the observed peak water level of 4.74 m in Mexico Beach, Holland 1980 wind model with radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation results in the lowest error of 1%. For a given wind model, the wind profiles are also affected by the wind data used for parameter estimation. Away from hurricane eye wall, using radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation generally produces weaker wind than those using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation. Comparing model simulated storm tides with 17 water marks observed along the coast, Holland 2010 wind model using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation leads to the minimum mean absolute error. The results will provide a good reference for researchers to improve storm surge modeling. The validated model can be used to support coastal hazard mitigation planning. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169428
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Florida A&M University-Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32310, United States; Department of Port, Waterway and Coastal Engineering, School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, China
Recommended Citation:
Vijayan L.,Huang W.,Yin K.,et al. Evaluation of parametric wind models for more accurate modeling of storm surge: a case study of Hurricane Michael[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,106(3)