| DOI: | 10.1007/s11069-020-04389-8
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| 论文题名: | A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment |
| 作者: | Wang Z.; Jia G.
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| 刊名: | Natural Hazards
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| ISSN: | 0921030X
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| 出版年: | 2021
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| 卷: | 105, 期:2 | | 起始页码: | 2045
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| 结束页码: | 2071
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 中文关键词: | Agent-based model
; Pedestrian–vehicle interaction
; Risk assessment
; Seismic damage
; Transportation network
; Tsunami evacuation
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| 英文摘要: | Tsunami evacuation is an effective way to save lives from the near-field tsunami. Realistic evacuation simulation can provide valuable information for accurate evacuation risk assessment and effective evacuation planning. Agent-based modeling is ideal for tsunami evacuation simulation due to its capability of capturing the emergent phenomena and modeling the individual-level interactions among agents and the agents’ interactions with the environment. However, existing models usually neglect or simplify some important factors and/or mechanisms in tsunami evacuation. For example, uncertainties in seismic damages to the transportation network are not probabilistically considered (e.g., by simply removing the damaged links (roads/bridges) from the network). Typically a relatively small population (i.e., evacuees) is considered (due to computational challenges) while neglecting population mobility. These simplifications may lead to inaccurate estimation of evacuation risk. Usually, only single traffic mode (e.g., on foot or by car) is considered, while pedestrian speed adjustment and multi-modal evacuation (e.g., on foot and by car) are not considered concurrently. Also, pedestrian–vehicle interaction is usually neglected in the multi-modal evacuation. To address the above limitations, this study proposes a novel and more realistic agent-based tsunami evacuation model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment. Uncertainties in seismic damages to all links in the transportation network as well as uncertainties in other evacuation parameters are explicitly modeled and considered. A novel and more realistic multi-modal evacuation model is proposed that explicitly considers the pedestrian–vehicle interaction, walking speed variability, and speed adjustment for both the pedestrian and car according to traffic density. In addition, several different population sizes are used to model population mobility and its impact on tsunami evacuation risk. The proposed model is applied within a simulation-based framework to assess the tsunami evacuation risk assessment for Seaside, Oregon. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169453
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Wang Z.,Jia G.. A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,105(2)
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