DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04505-2
论文题名: A simple Monte Carlo method for estimating the chance of a cyclone impact
作者: Xie X. ; Xie B. ; Cheng J. ; Chu Q. ; Dooling T.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 107, 期: 3 起始页码: 2573
结束页码: 2582
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Cyclone
; Impact
; Probability
英文关键词: cyclone
; data set
; Monte Carlo analysis
; prediction
; probability
英文摘要: Cyclones endanger life and cause great financial impact on interior and coastal regions through the destruction of buildings and land. Governments need to have a way of estimating the chance of different regions being impacted by a cyclone. The goal of this paper is to use big data to better predict future cyclone impacts. Large cyclone data sets from the CMA Tropical Cyclone Data Center are used in the analysis. By using big data analysis techniques, long-term patterns in cyclone locations and size can be revealed. The Hausdorff distance is used to determine overall changes in cyclone positions decade by decade. Monte Carlo techniques estimate the probability of a region being impacted by a cyclone any given year. This is done by creating random data sets that mimic long-term patterns in cyclone position and radii. It will be shown that any region can be assigned a probability of cyclone impact purely on large historical data sets. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169473
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha, 410205, China; Institute of Big Data and Internet Innovation, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha, 410205, China; University of North Carolina Pembroke, Pembroke, NC 28372, United States
Recommended Citation:
Xie X.,Xie B.,Cheng J.,et al. A simple Monte Carlo method for estimating the chance of a cyclone impact[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,107(3)