DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04809-3
论文题名: Application of generalized Pareto distribution for modeling aleatory variability of ground motion
作者: Zhang M. ; Pan H.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 108, 期: 3 起始页码: 2971
结束页码: 2989
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Generalized Pareto distribution
; Ground-motion prediction equation
; Peak ground acceleration
; Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
英文摘要: The lognormal distribution is commonly used to characterize the aleatory variability of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, this approach often leads to results without actual physical meaning at low exceedance probabilities. In this paper, we discuss how to calculate PSHA with a low exceedance probability. Peak ground acceleration records from the NGA-West2 database and 15,493 residuals calculated by Campbell-Bozorgnia using the NGA-West2 GMPE were applied to analyze the tail shape of the residuals. The results showed that the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) captured the characteristics of residuals in the tail better than the lognormal distribution. Further study showed that the shapes of the tails of the distributions of residuals with different magnitudes varied significantly due to the heteroscedasticity of the magnitude; the distribution of residuals with larger magnitudes had a smaller upper limit on the right side. Moreover, the residuals of the three magnitude ranges given in this study were more consistent with the GPD of different parameters at the tail than the lognormal distribution and the GPD fitted by all the residuals, leading to a bounded PSHA hazard curve. Therefore, the lognormal distribution is more representative up to a determined threshold, and the GPD fitted to the residuals of three ranges of magnitude better characterizes the tail for PSHA calculation. © 2021, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169507
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, No. 5 Minzu Daxue Nanlu Road, Beijing, 100081, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang M.,Pan H.. Application of generalized Pareto distribution for modeling aleatory variability of ground motion[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,108(3)