DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04466-y
论文题名: How much uncertainty does the choice of data transforming method brings to heat risk mapping? Evidence from China
作者: Zhang W. ; Zhao Q. ; Pei M.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 106, 期: 1 起始页码: 349
结束页码: 373
语种: 英语
中文关键词: China
; Data transforming method
; Demographic indicator
; Heat risk mapping
; Uncertainty
英文关键词: accuracy assessment
; climate change
; global change
; health risk
; heat wave
; model validation
; population density
; risk assessment
; stability analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; China
; Indicator indicator
英文摘要: Abstract: Increasing extreme heat events have threatened human health seriously in the context of global climate change. As an important policy tool to resist heat-related risks, growing attentions have been paid on heat risk mapping researches in recent years. Unfortunately, the uncertainties caused by the subjective choice of data transforming method remain unclear. This study compared four data transforming methods and investigated the impacts of data transforming method selection on the outputs of heat risk assessment and mapping. The results indicated that the choice of data transforming methods will greatly affect the stability of heat risk mapping outputs and is likely to mislead decision makers. Only 4.56% of the counties that their heat risk levels derived from four data transforming methods remain consistent. The stability of heat risk mapping output was highly relevant to the population density. Regions with higher population density usually have lower stability for its mapping results. The "Number" method and the "Total PD" method are recommended for their satisfactory validation accuracy and unambiguous policy orientation; while the "Proportion" method is not recommended for its poor validation accuracy and vague policy guiding. Graphic abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.] © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169511
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, 400715, China; School of Geographical Sciences, State Cultivation Base of Eco-Agriculture for Southwest Mountainous Land, Southwest University, Chongqing, 400715, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang W.,Zhao Q.,Pei M.. How much uncertainty does the choice of data transforming method brings to heat risk mapping? Evidence from China[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,106(1)