globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04851-1
论文题名:
Future droughts in China using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) under multi-spatial scales
作者: Zhao J.; Liu Q.; Lu H.; Wang Z.; Zhang K.; Wang P.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
语种: 英语
中文关键词: China ; Drought ; Evapotranspiration ; Multiscale analysis ; SPEI
英文摘要: The future changes in water resources are essential for water resources management and agricultural production in the context of climate change. In this paper, by adopting five global models, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was utilized to character the dry conditions during 2020–2099. The Mann-Kendall test with trend-free prewhitening (TFPW-MK) was used to detect the change trends of SPEI and drought characteristics were predicted at both national and regional scale. Results showed that there is a large difference in the frequency of dry and wet occurrences at different time scales. The 12-month SPEI has a stable alternate between dry and wet occurrences, and a long duration of drought, which better describe the annual changes of drought influencing the streamflow and reservoirs. It is obvious that the available water resources decrease over time under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The TFPW-MK test indicated that southwest China have an upward trend in SPEI, while northwest, northeast and southeast China shows a drying trend. From a national perspective, water resources are relatively abundant in the future under the RCP 4.5 scenario, which is beneficial in terms of utilization of future water resources. In the long term, the northwest and northeast China have longer duration and stronger intensity of drought than those in other areas. In a high level of radiative forcing, the available water resources decrease obviously, and thus the occurrences of dry event increases. In addition, the abnormal dry events mainly appear after 2070, principally in GXR and LPR. These results can provide reference for drought warning in agricultural production, and meanwhile is beneficial for allocation and rational utilization of water resources. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169520
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: School of Business, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang, Henan 453007, China; School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China; Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions (Henan University), Ministry of Education, Kaifeng, Henan 475004, China; College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan 475004, China; School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China

Recommended Citation:
Zhao J.,Liu Q.,Lu H.,et al. Future droughts in China using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) under multi-spatial scales[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01
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